Drawing a Line in the Sand

How easy it is to become trapped by one’s threats. Obama notoriously declared a red line in Syria, then he never made good on it with reprisals. Once you're discovered to be posturing, your future protests carry no weight. But what happens if both parties in a conflict live up to their promises?You see the results all the time in microcosm with couples shouting at each other and opposing groups resorting to violence. January 6 was an example of angry people making good on their threats. No one dreamt that the Retrumplicans protesting the election would invade congress and physically try to overturn the results of an election. It was a power of example to all those who have seemingly far-flung dreams of violence. Putin shoots off at ICBM, threatening nuclear attack as NATO continues to arm Ukraine. “We will bury you” were Khrushchev’s famous words at the UN. Assessing the validity of a threat also means apprising the probability that one side or another will step down, lowering the stakes. It’s all like some kind of geopolitical poker game with the ante constantly being raised until one or another party or in this case country folds. If Putin pulls out of Eastern Ukraine before Victory Day on May 9, is he actually losing if he spares lives of soldiers on both sides?  The Russian president has boxed him himself into a corner in which the obvious answer is yes.

Read "The Art of War" by Francis Levy, HuffPost

and listen to "Springtime For Hitler" (The Producers)