Apres moi le deluge

Louis XV by Hyacinthe Rigaud

The sentiment of "Apres moi le deluge" could easily be applied to the Middle East. Gaddafi, Hussein have fallen, along with Mubarak in Egypt and his successor Mohammed Morsi (whose Muslim Brotherhood was crushed by the Egyptian military) For a while it looked like Assad was on the way out, but now the glimmerings of a possible deluge have actually been responsible for perpetuating his rule. One of them communicated recently in a front page Times photograph (“Brutality of Syrian Rebels Posing Dilemma in West,” NYT, 9/5/13) showing opposition soldiers standing over half naked Syrian army regulars who were about to be cold-bloodedly murdered. Liberation from oppression has been galvanized by social networks like Facebook and Twitter. Yet the opposition parties are already so immersed in a metaphoric game of capture the flag that there is no flag to raise in a putative Iwo Jima. The victories are Pyrrhic at best with former dictators smiling from their graves or in the case of Mubarak on the verge of being rehabilitated (“Mubarak Is Moved From Prison to House Arrest, Stoking Anger of Islamists," NYT, 8/22/13). Obviously one of the most destructive elements in all the uprisings is the extent to which they have been exploited by external movements for their own purposes. Terrorists battle each other for hegemony fueled with arms and money from other tyrants of which they are clients. Neutrality and a non-partisan humanistic stance have become dubious luxuries that few civilians can readily afford. It’s not naturally selective to be an innocent bystander in the civil wars that are the rubble left by Arab Spring where violence has become the only means of survival.

Feudalism in Our Future

The Cloisters in Upper Manhattan

Syria, and Iraq were ill-fated creations, the legacy of a period of colonial rule following the decline of the Ottoman Empire. Yugoslavia was another example of a modern invention, albeit under the auspices of different historic forces. Arab Spring fractured the slim nationalistic ties that were often held together by tyrants. Essentially Assad, Hussein and Gaddafi were right. Without terror the conflicting agendas of their fractured constituencies would create an unparalleled cauldron of ethnic volatility. So what will the new Iraq and Syria look like? What will be the fate of Libya? Yugoslavia faced a similar situation after the death of Tito when the countries liberation from Communism unleashed centuries old vendettas that had been suppressed by in that country’s case, a benevolent despot. One looks back longingly at benevolent despotism and cynically at the prospect of democracy in countries where irrational hatred seems to be the lingua franca of political life. In fact, neither despotism nor democracy is likely to prevail and perhaps the currently hopeless situation in a country like Syria where terrorist groups, like Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah, who are themselves bitter enemies, vie for control of the revolution presages the future of many parts of the world.  What we are witnessing is a return to tribalism and feudalism. Unable to live together, each religious and ethnic group will stake out their territory with former nation states fragmenting into highly guarded enclaves, the walled fortresses of the middle ages. New Yorkers joke about seceding from the United States, such is their revulsion at the values of middle America. But it’s no joke. What's happening in the Mideast could spread like a virus even in those Western countries who consider themselves both the beneficiaries and benefactors of the Englightenment.